Vulnerability of nature based tourism to climate change: stakeholders' perceptions of and response to climate change in the lower Mustang Region of the Annapurna conservation area : A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management at Lincoln University

Nature based tourism (NBT) is a major contributor to the economy of the lower Mustang region in Nepal. This high Himalayan region is an important destination within the Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA). The contribution of NBT to conservation is also significant. However, recently, NBT is being subjected to multiple stressors. Socio-economically, the opening of the Beni – Jomsom road has transformed this remote area with its subsistence economy to a busy destination with diverse tourism activities and a cash based economy. The ruling regime change and the ongoing political instability have also affected the NBT supply system of lower Mustang. Similarly increasing climate variability and other climatic changes are increasing the vulnerability of the place, the people and their livelihoods. This research reports on an investigation into the vulnerability of the NBT supply system of lower Mustang to these multiple stressors, with special emphasis on climate change. In particular, the study explores the key drivers of change, and analyses the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the system through the tourism stakeholders’ perspectives. A vulnerability assessment framework has been developed to understand stakeholders’ perceptions of the exposure to and impacts of these multiple stressors. A multi-methods qualitative approach was used to elicit understandings of climate change among public and private tourism stakeholders. This study found that the NBT supply system is exposed to climate variability and change. However, it was also evident that climate change is occurring amidst a number of other socio-economic and political changes. The new road, changing tourism dynamics, low carrying capacity, and demographic forces, coupled with the ongoing political instability and destabilized power structures in the communities are important vulnerability issues for the system and its management. The study shows that stakeholders have a wide range of perceptions and levels of awareness and knowledge on climate change which is based on their historical relationships with the environment, experiential knowledge tied closely to livelihood practice, and holistic understanding, rather than scientific knowledge. Impacts of climate variability are perceived to affect all three key assets (tourism, human and natural) of the NBT system. The range of climatic impacts, the system’s sensitivities to them, and the adaptive capacities are varied and socially constructed. Most importantly, the study shows that the contexts for stakeholders’ vulnerability to climate change are multidimensional and that they are shaped by non-climatic stressors, such as socio-economic change and political change. In turn, these perceptions are likely to influence the NBT supply system itself and its vulnerability to climate change.