A Predictive Analysis of Beach Susceptibility to Jellyfish Arrivals in Costa del Sol
2024
Ana de la Fuente Roselló | María Jesús Perles Roselló | Francisco José Cantarero Prados
This study investigates the susceptibility of beaches to jellyfish arrivals, focusing on the summer seasons from 2015 to 2020. The objective was to develop a predictive model that identifies the characteristics of beaches prone to higher jellyfish presence. This research utilized data from the Infomedusa application, with a focus on key structural and circumstantial variables, such as beach orientation, coastal currents, and morphology. Binomial logistic regression was applied to two models to assess the influence of these variables on jellyfish occurrence. The results showed that beaches oriented toward the east and south, with protection from natural or artificial barriers, and those with limited open sea exposure are more likely to experience jellyfish arrivals. Conversely, beaches facing southwest, with opposing currents and freshwater inflows, tend to have lower risks. Although the models’ predictive capacity was moderate, with a 76% validation rate against empirical data, they provided valuable insights for coastal management and risk prevention. The findings highlight the importance of beach-specific characteristics in forecasting jellyfish presence, contributing to more effective coastal protection strategies.
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