Real-time application of the PROBFLO framework risk approach as a part of the digital twin towards the implementation of environmental flows in the Limpopo Basin, southern Africa

The natural world consists of various complex physical, biological and social systems that are connected and interact with each other. New technological developments are improving the ability of the managers of our natural resources, to understand and contribute to the way we are developing using and sometime abusing our resources. Through the Digital Twin for management of water resources in the Limpopo River Basin we have an opportunity to integrate available sustainable environmental flows and water resource management technology into an integrated system, that will allow stakeholders of the Limpopo River and surrounding regions to understand, monitor and manage these resources for current and future generations. Environmental flow (e-flow) determination tools have been designed to provide stakeholders of rivers with the flow requirements needed to protect the river ecosystems. While useful as a development control these e-flows usually only represent a small part of the sustainable development problem that resource stakeholders face. Managers have the needs of people to consider and other stressors to manage including water pollution, habitat loss, barriers, alien invasive species and climate uncertainty. Modern PROBFLO e-flow determination applications in the Limpopo River Basin are holistic and considers flow and non-flow variables of change. The PROBFLO approach also considers the risk of natural, present, e-flow and future drought flow scenarios in the context of non-flow stressors to supporting, provisioning, regulatory and cultural services. This once off PROBFLO assessment has been useful but is not adaptable in its current form and while valuable the probability risk model was used once and is not available to managers of the water resources and people of the Limpopo Basin who consider a range of alternative development and protection scenarios. The real-time application of the PROBFLO framework risk approach for the Limpopo River through the Limpopo River Digital Twin solves this problem through the establishment of and testing on an internet based PROBFLO EFA application tool. The tool combines a range of software and the PROBFLO e-flow models into a single userfriendly tool that stakeholders can use to consider any past or present water use scenario for the Limpopo River. The PROBFLO EFA application tool was developed for the Balule River site on the Limpopo River and is available for roll out to the rest of the basin. The tool allows users to change the flow scenario and condition/state of any non-flow stressor including water pollution, habitat loss, barriers, alien invasive species etc. and evaluate the risk of this new scenario to the supporting, provisioning, regulatory and cultural services established in the PROBFLO assessment. Users can use the risk results to consider the risk of a range of unique scenarios including new development options, they can consider trade-off considerations between social and ecological endpoints and between locations throughout the basin. The PROBFLO EFA application tool is a useful component of the new Digital Twin for the Limpopo River basin and will contribute to sustainable water resource management in the region.