Predicted Future Forest- and Farmland Development in Western Oregon With and Without Land Use Zoning in Effect

Oregon's Land Use Planning Program is often cited as an exemplary approach to protecting forest and farm lands from development. In November 2004, Oregon voters approved a ballot measure—Measure 37—to require the state to compensate landowners for any property value losses resulting from land use regulations, including those adopted under the program. Because compensation is viewed by many land use planners and policymakers in the state as virtually impossible because of the potential expense involved, the passage of Measure 37 has placed the continued enforcement of land use regulations into question. A key question for land use planners and policymakers in Oregon, and other states aspiring to implement land use planning programs like Oregon's, is what effect potential lapses in zoning enforcement might have on forest- and farmland development. This research note uses an existing spatial land use model created for western Oregon to predict future development of forest and agricultural lands for two scenarios: (1) one assuming that land use zones adopted under Oregon's Land Use Planning Program remain unaffected by Measure 37, and (2) one assuming that land use zones are made completely unenforceable by Measure 37. Although neither scenario probably is likely, the predictions suggest a set of bounds defining a range of new development possibilities enabled by pending changes in zoning enforcement resulting from Measure 37. The predictions suggest that a hypothetical lapse of land use zoning enforcement beginning in 2004 would result in greater numbers of new buildings on forest and agricultural lands in western Oregon through 2024. More than would have occurred with pre-Measure 37 zoning enforcement. Several caveats are noted in the "Conclusions."