Land use planning and quantitative modelling in Tanzania with particular reference to agriculture and deforestation: Some theoretical aspects and a case study from the west Usambara mountains

Land use planning in Tanzania is an important issue due to serious land use problems caused by a host of factors. One of the reasons causing the general land use problem is stiff competition between forestry and agriculture. In the forest sector per se we find problems related to competition between the production of wood products, watershed protection, tourism, nature conservation, deforestation through encroachment, both legal and illegal logging activities. All these activities very much influence the future prospects of natural forest reserves. In agriculture land use problems emanate basically from inefficient farm management practices caused by socio-economic factors. The broad objective of this study has been to improve on the body of knowledge related to land use planning, modelling and management of the land use in Tanzania with particular relevance to an integrated management of forestry, agriculture and nature conservation. The more specific objectives are to: (i) present an overview of major land use planning problems in Tanzania in general and in the Usambaras in particular, (ii) evaluate some of the existing planning models regarding their suitability for application in multiple land use planning in Tanzania and discuss the optimal balance between quantitative modelling and qualitative aspects in land use planning and multiresource management; (iii) develop linear programming and compromise programming models for analyzing fanning systems at the village level in the West Usambaras. This has been done in the enclosed four reports: Report 1: Forest related land use in Tanzania: some policy and socio-economic aspects. Report 2: Land use in the West Usambara Mountains: analysis of ecological and socio­ economic aspects with special reference to forestry. A theoretical review and application of some land use planning models with Report 3: relevance for application in Tanzania. Application of economic analyses and mathematical programming in land use Report 4: planning at the village level in West Usambara Mountains. The application of quantitative modelling in Tanzania has been fairly limited, yet this study has indicated that there are considerable prospects for increased scope of application. The analysis of this study, inter alia, indicates that the present farming systems in the West Usambaras are not sustainable for more than about 30 years, and that the pressure from agriculture on forest lands would be high. This suggests that, in order to make the existing farming systems sustainable, it is important to improve farming technology which could increase crop production through improvements of land productivity and increase income from other sources. The government has failed to provide adequate measures to counter-balance the effect of population increases, thereby setting in motion a devolutionary cycle of increasing population densities and declining welfare. Therefore, as a matter of policy, it is important to redress this downward trend through a combined effort of politicians, extension workers and the farmers themselves. The overriding strategy should be to ensure long-term maintenance and improvement of the welfare of the local populace.My interest in land use planning, especially from farming and forestry point of view, is based on the fact that I was bom and brought up in a peasantry society. Our village lies in the immediate environs of a natural forest reserve from which we obtain a variety of materials. During my childhood I grew up with increasing realization of the importance of forests and farming activities. Therefore it is not by chance that I took interest in analyzing farming systems in this study. In pursuit of this study I received assistance and cooperation from various institutions and individuals. The Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD) provided financial sponsorship for the study. The Department of Forestry, Agricultural University of Norway, accepted me as a Dr. Scient. student and provided logistical support I spent one year (1990/91) doing course-work at the School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, U.S.A., where I received academic and logistical support from both faculty and administrative staff. Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, granted me study leave to pursue the Ph.D programme. Professor Dr. Birger Solberg, The Norwegian Forest Research Institute, initiated, inspired and guided me diligently throughout the study period, and has read and commented on all four reports. Dr. Prem Sankhayan, Senior Economist at the Centre for Sustainable Development, Agricultural University of Norway, encouraged me in mathematical modelling, and has read and commented on Report Number 4 of this study. Prof. Dr. Aaron S.M. Mgeni, Department of Mensuration and Management, Sokoine University of Agriculture, has read and commented on Reports 1 and 2. Mr. Gerald C. Monela, Lecturer, Department of Forest Economics, Sokoine University of Agriculture, has read and commented on Reports 1 and 2 as well as chapter 3 of Report Number 4. Dr. Stein T. Holden, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Agricultural University of Norway, has read and commented on Reports 1 and 2. Prof. Dr. Aku O’Kting’ati, Head, Department of Forest Economics, Sokoine University of Agriculture provided logistical support during field work in Tanzania. Ms. Grethe Delbeck typed and retyped Report Number 3 of the study. Ms. Kari Solberg, as a true mother, gave me moral support during the course of the study. Finally my family has had to tolerate my long absence from home. I missed my mothers sweet porridge! Prof. Shabani A.O. Chamshama took great care of the family during my absence. To all these institutions and persons I wish to say SHUKRAN.

Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD)