Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Interactions between Ecosystem Services in Arid Areas and Their Responses to Urbanization and Various Driving Factors

In recent years, rapid urban expansion and increasing ecological sensitivity in arid zones have led to extreme imbalances in ecosystem development. Therefore, there is an urgent need to balance the dual goals of synergistic development of ecosystem services (ESs) and increased urbanization. Previous studies have analyzed the impacts of urbanization on ESs but have selected a limited number of indicators and have not focused on the impacts of urbanization on ES pair interactions. In this study, six key ESs (water yield, habitat quality, soil conservation, carbon storage, carbon sequestration and oxygen production, and food production) and total ecosystem services (TESs) were selected, and trends in the temporal and spatial relationship between trade-offs and synergies were analyzed over 20 years. This study refined the living standards urbanization indicator and evaluated the impact of urbanization and multiple drivers on ESs and ES pair interrelationships based on geo-detectors and segmented linear regression. The results show that there is heterogeneity in the overall and regional ES trade-offs and synergistic relationships, and water yield (WY)-related ES pairs generally exhibit synergistic relationships at the overall level. Spatially, however, the trade-off ratio exceeds the synergy ratio. Segmented linear regression results show that the relationship between all the urbanization indicators and TESs demonstrates an upward trend followed by a downward trend. Measures such as the increase in man-made oases in the early stages of urbanization did have some positive effects on TESs. However, as urbanization increased, these positive effects were quickly offset by the negative effects of overdevelopment and environmental degradation, leading to an overall decline in TESs. Urbanization of construction land (CL) had the most direct impact on ecosystem services. In summary, due to special climatic constraints, arid zones are more sensitive than other ecosystems, and urban development is strictly limited by oasis capacity. As cities expand, attention needs to be focused on protecting ecological land and limiting the expansion of CL to promote the synergistic development of urbanization and ecosystem services in arid zones.