The Maintenance System and Profitability of Pig Production in Poland Under Conditions of ASF Occurrence

In the last two decades, the pig market in Poland has been influenced by two key events: accession to the European Union and the spread of African swine fever (ASF). During this time, the pig population in Poland has almost doubled, and the number of farms keeping pigs has fallen almost tenfold. On the other hand, the import of piglets intended for further rearing has increased significantly, which reduces the value added to production retained in the country. The changes taking place in the pig market in Poland in the conditions of ASF have, therefore, prompted the question of which pig-keeping systems are more profitable for pig producers, and identifying this relationship was the main objective of the analysis in this study. This research was conducted using source data from the databases of the Central Statistical Office, the FADN, and the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Factors influencing the value of pig production were identified using panel regression, and profitability analysis was performed based on changes in the levels of and relationship between feed costs and live pig prices. Feed consumption was determined based on feed rations for individual utility groups in both products. As the analysis has shown, a closed cycle of pig farming is characterized by better stability and resistance to market shocks compared to an open cycle (over the entire period under review, only the closed system ensured a positive surplus of production value over feed costs), which significantly increases the possibility of obtaining a positive surplus of production value over the value of the main cost, which is the feed cost. However, with the occurrence of extraordinary situations, such as an ASF outbreak in the herd, rebuilding production in a closed cycle may be much more difficult and expensive than production in an open cycle.