Climate change and plant protection: challenges and innovations in disease forecasting systems in developing countries

Plant disease forecasting plays a crucial role in managing outbreaks and mitigating economic and health impacts, thereby contributing significantly to plant protection efforts. This proactive approach assesses the likelihood of disease outbreaks and increases in disease intensity, enabling timely intervention and resource optimization. However, climate change exacerbates this challenge by altering pathogen evolution and host-pathogen interactions, fostering the emergence of new pathogenic strains, shifting pathogen ranges, and expanding the geographic spread of plant diseases. In developing countries, these changes are compounded by limited resources and inadequate infrastructure, creating significant challenges for forecasting systems and plant protection efforts. The primary objective of this review was to assess the impact of climate change on plant disease forecasting systems, with a focus on biotic and abiotic stresses such as temperature changes, altered precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. A systematic literature review was conducted using databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar, selecting peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2024. Key data on research objectives, methodologies, results, and implications were extracted and synthesized, demonstrating how climateinduced stresses affect components of the disease tetrahedron, including host susceptibility, pathogen virulence, environmental conditions, and vector dynamics. The findings reveal that climate change significantly affects forecasting systems and plant protection strategies, emphasizing the need for reliable, and cost-effective forecasting models adaptable to diverse and evolving climate conditions, especially in resource-constrained settings. This review underscores the importance of developing innovative and context-specific strategies to enhance forecasting capabilities and plant protection. Future research should focus on advancing forecasting technologies, addressing data gaps, and adapting systems to evolving climate conditions to better safeguard food security and environmental sustainability.