Determination of collected porcini and chanterelle quantities depending on different climate change scenarios
2016
Ranković Nenad | Nedeljković Jelena | Poduška Zoran | Nonić Dragan
This study examines the influence of some climate elements on the collected quantities of two commercially most significant types of mushrooms in Serbia (porcini and chanterelle). The main objective of the research is to determine the extent of the collected quantity of porcini and chanterelle, which can be expected in different scenarios of climate change (А1Bmin, А1Bmax, A2min и A2max), based on forecasts of temperature and rainfall changes. The general (dialectical) and specific (modelling methods) are used in the research, as well as the classical scientific methods of reasoning. The calculation of the average annual exponential growth rate (IS) was carried out by forming exponential regression models of the trend of porcini and chanterelle collected quantities. In the research it was found that, according to the data related to the period up to 2014, one can expect a decrease in the movement of both porcini and chanterelle IS, and thus a decrease in the collected quantities. On the other hand, according to the data related to the period up to 2040, in both cases one can expect some fluctuation (increase and decrease) in the movement of IS. According to the data related to periods after 2041 (especially for the period until 2100), in both cases, one can expect a decrease in the collected quantities, as a result of changes in T and P, caused by the assumed climate change.
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