The Rebound Effect: Autonomous Ships Rebound Effect on Energy Consumption

The maritime industry is transforming with autonomous ships driven by advancements in artificial intelligence. This study examines the rebound effect of adopting autonomous ships in Norway, where energy efficiency gains lead to behavioral responses that offset the expected energy savings. Using a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach, the research simulates the impact of autonomous ships on energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The model incorporates variables such as cost savings, fleet size, and operational hours to explore the feedback loop mechanism and system behavior. Initial simulation results show a "super conservation" phase with significant energy savings meaning a negative rebound effect, and as the fleet of autonomous ships expands and operational hours increase, energy consumption rises, creating a positive rebound effect. Feedback loops drive this shift, highlighting the interaction between cost savings, energy efficiency, and investment decisions. This research aims to understand the dynamic relationship between technological adoption and energy consumption in the maritime industry, emphasizing the need for policies to fully achieve the environmental benefits of autonomous ships, aligning with IMO's goal of reducing GHG emissions by 50% by 2050

Masteroppgave i systemdynamikk

GEO-SD351

MASV-SYSDY

INTL-JUS

INTL-PSYK

INTL-MED

INTL-KMD

INTL-MN

INTL-SV

INTL-HF