Source Attribution of Health Burdens From Ambient PM2.5, O3, and NO2 Exposure for Assessment of South Korean National Emission Control Scenarios by 2050

Abstract We quantify anthropogenic sources of health burdens associated with ambient air pollution exposure in South Korea and forecast future health burdens using domestic emission control scenarios by 2050 provided by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Our health burden estimation framework uses GEOS‐Chem simulations, satellite‐derived NO2, and ground‐based observations of PM2.5, O3, and NO2. We estimate 19,000, 3,300, and 8,500 premature deaths owing to long‐term exposure to PM2.5, O3, and NO2, respectively, and 23,000 NO2‐associated childhood asthma incidences in 2016. Next, we calculate anthropogenic emission contributions to these four health burdens from each species and grid cell using adjoint sensitivity analysis. Domestic sources account for 56%, 38%, 87%, and 88% of marginal emission contributions to the PM2.5‐, O3‐, and NO2‐associated premature deaths and the NO2‐associated childhood asthma incidences, respectively. We project health burdens to 2050 using UNEP domestic emission scenarios (Baseline and Mitigation) and population forecasts from Statistics Korea. Because of population aging alone, there are 41,000, 10,000, and 20,000 more premature deaths associated with PM2.5, O3, and NO2 exposure, respectively, and 9,000 fewer childhood asthma incidences associated with NO2. The Mitigation scenario doubles the NO2‐associated health benefits over the Baseline scenario, preventing 24,000 premature deaths and 13,000 childhood asthma incidences by 2050. It also slightly reduces PM2.5‐ and O3‐associated premature deaths by 9.9% and 7.0%, unlike the Baseline scenario where these pollutants increase. Furthermore, we examine foreign emission impacts from nine SSP/RCP‐based scenarios, highlighting the need for international cooperation to reduce PM2.5 and O3 pollution.