Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity

Large scale changes in biodiversity and conservation management require long-term goals and planning across multiple sectors in the face of increasing global change. Major trends in land use and management interventions, species additions or losses, and climate are well recognized, but responses are still often short-term and fragmented across agencies and sectors. Scenario-building can be a powerful tool to imagine possible futures, integrating across sectors and disciplines and promoting long-term thinking and planning. As an interdisciplinary team of experts, we developed potential scenarios for a range of future environmental conditions. The scenarios explored: increasing land ownership and stewardship of land by indigenous peoples (Māori); widespread afforestation using native tree species; national-scale eradication of invasive mammalian predators; and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. We explored the implications of these globally-relevant trends at a national scale using Aotearoa New Zealand as our study system. Detailed descriptions of these scenarios were developed by experts using environmental, economic, social science and policy lenses. Across scenarios several common themes were consistently highlighted, including the importance of land use in driving other conservation outcomes. How the value of ecosystem services is recognized and prioritized was also important to a wide range of outcomes. Furthermore, each scenario presented both opportunities and risks to equality, indigenous empowerment and human capital, emphasizing the importance of good policy responses to maximize benefits and minimize unintended harm. These scenarios will be used to stimulate new questions and ideas for biodiversity conservation and management, such as considering the implications of different potential futures for the management of biological invasions. This approach is explicitly designed to be generalisable across different sites or regions and provides a method for considering the implications of potential future changes for a broad range of disciplines or needs.