Spatial Modeling of Trace Element Concentrations in PM<sub>10</sub> Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs)
2025
Mariacarmela Cusano | Alessandra Gaeta | Raffaele Morelli | Giorgio Cattani | Silvia Canepari | Lorenzo Massimi | Gianluca Leone
GAMs were implemented to evaluate the spatial variation in concentrations of 33 elements in PM<sub>10</sub>, in their water-soluble and insoluble fractions used as tracers for different emission sources. Data were collected during monitoring campaigns (November 2016–February 2018) in the Terni basin (an urban and industrial hotspot of Central Italy), using an innovative experimental approach based on high-spatial-resolution (23 sites, approximately 1 km apart) monthly samplings and the chemical characterization of PM<sub>10</sub>. For each element, a model was developed using monthly mean concentrations as the response variable. As covariates, the temporal predictors included meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, irradiance, precipitation, planet boundary layer height), while the spatial predictors encompassed distances from major sources, road length, building heights, land use variables, imperviousness, and population. A stepwise procedure was followed to determine the model with the optimal set of covariates. A leave-one-out cross-validation method was used to estimate the prediction error. Statistical indicators (Adjusted R-Squared, RMSE, FAC2, FB) were used to evaluate the performance of the GAMs. The spatial distribution of the fitted values of PM<sub>10</sub> and its elemental components, weighted over all sampling periods, was mapped at a resolution of 100 m.
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