Lost and gained: climate-induced redistribution of black truffle in Spain

Versión original del autor

Spain is the world’s leading producer of black truffle Tuber melanosporum Vittad. because of a distinct combination of edaphic properties and climatic conditions in the growing season. Relatively cold winters and moderate summer precipitation are key for a productive harvest; however, climate projections foresee a spatially diverse warming, favoring extreme temperatures and drought conditions which will affect the future distribution of the species. We used a combination of 3 machine-learning-based species distribution modeling methods—maxent, random forest, and boosted regression trees—to estimate the current and future habitat potentiality in mainland Spain, based on historical observations and a collection of environmental variables previously demonstrated as critical parameters for the modeling of black truffle presence. Results showed a notable change in the distribution under 2 future scenarios, with a total loss of between 22 and 32% of the current habitat, especially in zones with hot temperatures and low precipitation. This was partially compensated with the colonization of new areas (+25%) in colder and more humid climates. Overall, the greatest changes in future distribution scenarios were associated with maximum summer temperatures, summer precipitation, elevation, and edaphic pH. While significant differences were found in the contribution of the predictors to the 3 models, the spatial distribution results were similar. By illustrating the climate-driven redistribution of a high-value crop, our findings underscore the importance of integrating ecological modeling into agricultural policy and land-use planning to ensure long-term resilience of rural economies.

R.S.N. cuenta con la financiación de la subvención RYC2021-034330-I, financiada por MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y «European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR». También cuenta con el apoyo del Gobierno de Aragón, a través del «Programa de grupos de investigación» (grupo S74_23R, «Clima, Agua, Cambio Global y Sistemas Naturales»).

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