Optimizing Diversified Crop Rotation Strategies Under Temperature and Precipitation Change Scenarios in a Typical Agro-Pastoral Ecotone Using the APSIM Model

Future climate change poses unprecedented challenges to agricultural production worldwide. Therefore, designing region-specific rotation patterns is crucial for achieving synergies among multiple objectives, including agricultural productivity and ecological conservation. Based on a long-term field experiment in the Northern Agro-pastoral Ecotone of China, we calibrated and validated the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and simulated rotation patterns involving four representative crops under eight climate scenarios, including warming, extreme precipitation, and combined temperature–precipitation changes. Analysis combined with carbon footprint assessment was employed to quantitatively evaluate the productivity, ecological benefits, and economic returns of different rotation patterns. The results showed that warming generally reduced crop productivity and economic returns, weakened soil carbon sequestration, and increased net carbon emissions across rotation patterns. Increasing intensity of extreme precipitation further constrained the capacity of rotation patterns to enhance yields, improve incomes, and reduce carbon emissions. Under scenarios of warming and extreme precipitation, the faba bean–oat rotation pattern was found to be the most effective for increasing crop yields, while the faba bean–potato rotation is beneficial for enhancing the incomes from local agriculture. The potato–faba bean rotation pattern was most effective for environmental sustainability due to low net carbon emissions. The findings provide a scientific basis for developing diversified planting strategies with synergistic multi-objectives in the Northern Agro-pastoral Ecotone of China, contributing to food security and sustainable agricultural development under a changing climate focused on changes in temperature and precipitation. Nevertheless, the potential effects of rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations may be incorporated in future studies.