The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on national economies are characterized as the worst economic turmoil in recent years, as economic growth slowed to the level of the 2008 global financial crisis. At the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, economic growth surveys did not project that the novel virus could have a negative impact on economic growth. As a result of the rapid spread of the virus and the increase in the number of infection cases, national governments took strict measures to limit the spread of the virus, which led to a significant deterioration in the economic situation in all industries of the economy. Agriculture plays an important role in providing food to the country’s population, yet the pandemic made a negative impact on sales volumes and prices in the domestic and international markets. The research aims to assess the impacts of the pandemic on milk supply chains in Latvia and come up with solutions to stabilizing the situation in the dairy sector. The national restrictions to combat the pandemic also hampered the dairy sector concerning the sale of raw milk and finished products in foreign markets, thereby leading to overproduction and stockpiling of the finished products, price dumping and a significant decrease in milk purchase prices to or below the production cost level for many dairy farms. Although there is no indication that the pandemic would lead to a decrease in the numbers of livestock and farms or output in early 2021, it is too early to assess the overall impact of the pandemic on dairy farming, as uncertainty over the duration of pandemic restrictions is a major risk to farm survival. The operation of the dairy sector was stabilized by means of the support provided by the government, as well as the farms’ accumulated financial and feed resources. In order to identify future challenges for milk supply chains, the research performed an analysis of operational risks for milk producers and processors to identify the most important risks and design recommendations for their elimination. The longer there is uncertainty about the return of the dairy sector to pre-pandemic output levels, the more likely it is that the pandemic is going to lead to a decrease in the numbers of dairy livestock and farms.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented stress to food supply chains, pointing to weaknesses in the labour, processing, transport and logistics spheres, as well as significant changes in demand. Food supply chains have shown considerable resilience in the face of such stress. Monitoring of the food sector during the COVID-19 pandemic indicates that the effects of COVID-19 on food supply, demand and access are interlinked processes and have a complex impact on food systems. In addition, high-value food supply chains in developed countries are even more complex, so countries need to respond quickly to restore them and also develop mechanisms that balance business and public interests and protect farmers and food business workers during future potential pandemic crises. The research aims to identify the main demand and supply side factors that affect the resilience of local and global food supply chains during the COVID-19 crisis, as well as assess the resilience of the supply chain for arable crops during the COVID-19 crisis in Latvia, identifying the main risk factors. The research found that arable crop farmers were relatively less affected by the COVID-19 crisis than other agricultural employees. The impact of the crisis was larger on the crop processing industry than on the other industries, and the main risk factors related to changes in demand and the industry’s dependence on imported raw materials and the successful operation of export markets. Based on an in-depth risk analysis, the research developed recommendations for policy makers and actors in the agri-food chain that would improve the resilience of local (domestic) participants of the arable crop food supply chain in Latvia.