Forecasting rice tungro disease (RTD) occurrence in asynchronous rice planting areas on an empirical basis
1993
Suzuki, Y. | Ratini, L.P.E. | Atmoidjojo, F.X.R. (Kuyushu National Agricultural Experiment Station, Nishigoushi, Kumamoto (Japan))
The RTD [rice tungro disease]-infected area in Oct-Dec (transition to early WS [wet season]) is positively related with that in Jul-Sep (second half of the DS [dry season]) when RTD incidence is lowest in a year. Rainfall, mean temperature, and the area planted with vector-susceptible cultivars failed to account for significant additional variance in the infected area in Oct-Dec. The RTD onset month (defined as the month when the newly infected area was greater than twice that of the previous month and increased more than 1 ha) tended to precede the start of WS (monthly rainfall 200 mm) in years of severe occurrence when infected area in WS was 100 ha. In ordinary years, RTD onset month often came after the beginning of WS. The difference in RTD onset month relative to that of the WS between the two categories of years is significant (Mann-Whitney U-test, P 0.05). RTD occurrence in Bali in the 1990-91 WS was successfully forecast using these empirical rules
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