Agroclimatic Analysis on Crop Production Potentials of the Semiarid Areas
1994
Engda Mersha (National Meteorological Services Agency, Addis Abeba (Ethiopia)) | Reddy, S.J.
This paper summarizes the application of three different agroclimatic techniques of interpreting climatic information to assess crop production potentials of semiarid areas citing Kombolcha as an example. The data set consists of daily rainfall data for the years 1953-1987 and the daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the years 1959-1988 along with weekly normal PET values. The weekly sets of data on rainfall and relative rainfall were analyzed using the initial and conditional probability analysis of Markov Chain Model of First Order, and the estimated expected rainfall amounts at different probability levels were analyzed using the Incomplete Gamma Model. The weekly relative rainfall data were subjected to the agroclimatic analogue technique of Reddy (1990) and 11 agroclimatic variables were derived. The frequency of occurrence of 0, 5 and 10 C of T (min), and 30 and 35 C of T (max) at a 10-day interval were derived from the daily minimum and maximum temperature data. The results showed that Kombolcah comes under the Semiarid Bimodal Rainfall Zone, with a highly unreliable first rainy season and a reliable second rainy season. During the first rainy season agricultural drought and planting risks were very high. In the second rainy season they were very low with a moderate to high excess water hazard. This season is suitable for dry seedling and intercropping or double cropping can also practised.
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