Fuzzy demand and supply models of vegetables and price forecasting
1993
Kanayama, T. (Tottori Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Agriculture)
The price forecast of vegetables is needed for stability of vegetable production, because their prices fluctuate widely. But it is difficult to describe precisely all aspects of economic systems in which human factors are included. Fuzzy models can be effectively employed to express the vagueness of phenomena in these systems. In this paper, it is attempted to forecast the price of broccoli, which is one of the important vegetables in Tottori, by using fuzzy demand and supply models. In particular, the membership function of the models isn't an L-L fuzzy number, which is a symmetrical membership function, but an L-R fuzzy number, which isn't symmetrical. The results obtained in this study are as follows: 1) The fuzzy price flexibility of demand is small and considerably vague in November and December. The fuzzy price elasticity of supply is less than 1.0 and not so vague in November and December. 2) The model with an L-R fuzzy number of forecast supply is better than that with an L-L fuzzy number. 3) The fuzzy demand and supply models is good enough to forecast prices. But there are some forecasting prices that are seriously different form real price
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