Recent trends in the evolution of the Romanian exports: an econometric analysis
1995
Esanou, C.
This study intends to examine the Romanian export flow in the light of some definitory international developments - the dismantling of the traditional economic ties within the frame of the former eastern European trading bloc (the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, CMEA) and the conclusion (in 1993) of the Association Agreement between Romania and the EU, the two of them leading to a significant adjustment of the geographic trade pattern of the country. The structural gravity model (rather popular in the literature) was employed to analyse the evolution of the Romanian export flow to the two groups of main trading partners: the "traditional" ones, i.e., the European nations of the ex-CMEA, and the EU. The empirical results support the view that the latter became and will remain the major market outlet for the Romanian exports in the following years, the deliveries of the country having a burgeoning trend in the forecast period (1994-2000) (the predicted annual growth being 5.32). This outcome has in view, of course, both the gradual liberalisation provisions of the Association Agreement and the possibility of the exporter to adapt to the new realities
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