Economic analysis of the impacts of Uruguay Round GATT Agreements on Thai soybean meals
1997
Kunattha Brahmasubha
Objective of this study was to study the impacts of Uruguay Round GATT Agreements on Thai soybean meals. The simultaneous equation system of 5 equations was set consisting of soybean planted area, soybean yield, demand for domestic produced soybean meal, demand for import soybean meal and price equations. The coefficients were estimated by Two Stage Least Squares. Then various elasticities were estimated. These elasticities were used to evaluate the impacts of tariff reduction according to Uruguay Round GATT Agreements. The elasticities of soybean planted area with respect to last year soybean meal wholesale price, last year second rice price and last year planted area of soybean were 1.0882,-0.3225 and 0.9515 respectively. The elasticities of soybean yield with respect to 15-15-15 fertilizer price, second rice price and last year soybean meal wholesale price were -0.6180, -0.8422 and 0.0882 respectively. The elasticities of demand for domestic produced soybean meal with respect to consumer's income, wholesale price fish meal and wholesale price soybean meal were 1.7687, 1.6481 and -0.1389 respectively. The elasticities of demand for import soybean meal with respect to import price of soybean meal, consumer's income, quota import and free import with surcharge policies were -0.8822, 1.8971, -0.1639 and -0.0947 respectively. The elasticities for price transmission between domestic wholesale price of soybean meal and last year soybean meal wholesale price and import price of soybean meal were 0.0598 and 0.4585 respectively. By utilizing those elasticities above, the impact of 24 percent reduction in tariff rate based on base year period on soybean were calculated. The results showed that planted area of soybean and soybean yield were decreased by 1.75 and 0.16 percent respectively. Demand for domestic produced soybean meal and import soybean meal were increased by 1.54 and 34.00 percent respectively.
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