Drought risk, farmers' coping mechanisms, and poverty: a study of the rainfed system in eastern India
2001
Pandey, S. | Behura, D. | Villano, R. and Naik, D.
This chapter analyzes the economic cost of drought in eastern India. The value of rice and nonrice output lost in drought years was calculated based on an analysis of state-level data for the period 1970-96. The total value of output lost averaged over the 27-year period was estimated to be as high as $400 million per year. This is certainly a substantial cost, accounting for about 8% of the total value of agricultural production. Using panel data of farm households, we analyzed various strategies that farmers have adopted to reduce the loss from drought. Changes in cropping patterns, reduction in rice area, and changes in rice varieties and input usage were the major strategies employed when drought was of molder intensity and occurred during the early part of the growing season. During severe droughts when crops failed completely, a range of consumption-smoothing strategies such as local nonfarm income, sale of assets, borrowing, and migration were used. A substantial proportion of households suffered a major reduction in consumption despite these strategies. Vulnerable groups such as women and children suffered the most. The effect of drought was not limited to the year when drought occurred but it lingered on for several years as farmers attempted to rebuild the stock of productive farm assets such as livestock depleted during drought. These economic effects are quantified based on farm data from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Orissa.
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