Globalization of the wheat market and the emerging trends in wheat research and technology generation

The Green Revolution in wheat had a tremendous impact on food security in the developing world. The development of modern varieties, their free global exchange, and improved production practices were the cornerstones of wheat productivity growth, along with infrastructural investments and a conducive policy environment. The demand for wheat in 2020 is expected to be 40% greater than today's 552 million tons as per IFPRI's projections, but the resources available for wheat production are expected to be significantly lower, hence the challenge for increasing wheat supplies is as great today as it was three decades ago and the current sense of complacency is misplaced. Global food markets are increasingly becoming integrated, and the premium given in the past to food self-sufficiency is being replaced by an emphasis on economic competitiveness and comparative advantage. Agricultural resources devoted to cereal crop production are increasingly diverted to other agricultural and nonagricultural activities. Research systems, national as well as international, are facing declining budgets and uncertain futures. The free international movement of germplasm and information, which was an important factor in the success of the Green Revolution, is becoming increasingly restricted due to increasing quarantine restrictions and concerns of intellectual property protection. All of the factors discussed above lead to the central question examined in this paper: What should the global wheat research system do in this changing world? The research system ought to focus on sustaining the competitiveness of wheat production in the developing world. This can be achieved through a dramatic shift in the yield frontier, a constant drive to stabilize yields, and enhanced input use efficiency and responsiveness. The emphasis on profitability should not be restricted to the irrigated, favorable environments alone. Similar opportunities ought to be explored for marginal, rainfed environments. This paper highlights the role that wheat research and germplasm exchange can play in sustaining global wheat productivity growth over the next two decades. Technologies on the shelf and in the pipeline that will help meet the demand for wheat through 2020 are identified and evaluated.