Inflation - one of the most important risks in the national economy
2003
Vilcina, A. (Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics. Dept. of Economics)
The report ascertains essential features of national economy risks on the basis of critical opinion assessment by domestic and foreign specialists. The report explains the role and position of national economy risks in the structure of economic risks; it emphasizes inflation as one of the most important national economy risks and pays attention to GDP interrelationship models. The effect of inflation and changes in exports and imports caused by it on GDP growth in the period of 1995-2001 have been researched by applying statistical methods (linear regression and correlation analysis). The results of the research indicate an existence of tight relationship (R**2=0.8224) between inflation and GDP as dependant values, but tight negative correlative relationship exist between an increase in the rate of inflation and a decrease in exports/imports.
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