The rice economy in Taiwan: demand and supply determinants and prospects
2002
Gemma, M.
The economy in Taiwan has exhibited remarkable growth for the past few decades and the rice economy in Taiwan has gone through drastic changes. Per capita rice consumption declined to 55 kg in 1999 from 130 kg in the 1970s. The continuous decline in the use of labor and land has also been observed on the production side of the rice economy. The objectives of this study were to identify the determining factors of the future demand and supply of rice and to project future demand-supply conditions of the rice economy in Taiwan. This study found that future changes in rice consumption in Taiwan would mainly depend on changes in real income. It also discovered that rice area would be influenced by the level of urbanization while rice yield would be determined by rice prices and technical change. If we assume that the present pace of the changes in area and yield for rice continues in the future, Taiwan would become a net exporter of rice under the high-income growth scenario. Under the low-income growth scenario, Taiwan would be a net importer of rice. The impact of the liberalization of the rice market in Taiwan under the Minimum Access Agreement with the World Trade Organiation would be relatively small for domestic producers in the short run as a large portion of the imported rice would be kept by the government for storage. In the long run, domestic producers face challenges to become more competitive in terms of production costs and product quality for their own survival.
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