A quantitative modeling approach to estimate the risks posed by the smuggled animal products contaminated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) virus
2005
Hong, K.O. (National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service, MAF, Anyang, Republic of Korea) | Pak, S.I. (Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Republic of Korea), E-mail: paksi@kangwon.ac.kr | Lee, G.H. (National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service, MAF, Anyang, Republic of Korea)
A quantitative risk assessment tool was used to provide estimates of the probability that footand-mouth (FMD) virus-contaminated, smuggled animal products are fed to susceptible swine in Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to attempt to distinguish between parameter uncertainty and variability, using different assumptions on the effect of cooking at home, the effect of the fresh meat, and the effect of heat treatment at garbage processing facility. The median risk estimate was about 20.1% with a mean value of 27.4%. In a scenario regarding all beef and pork were considered as fresh meat the estimated median risk was 3.4%.
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