[Modelling of alternative scenarios for the Latvian bank sector development in EU]
2005
Mednis, L.
Stable growth of the Latvian economy would never be imaginable without a stable Latvian bank system and thought-out decision-making, based on analysis of the general situation. In order to ensure stability in the Latvian bank system when rapid growth is present, it is necessary to carefully analyze various indices and determine factors that could remarkably influence the development of the Latvian bank system in the future. In addition, it is necessary to see the stronger and weaker sides that need to be considered when planning the possible development scenarios. Timely made situation analyses and planning enable efficient reaction to changes. In the essay, the main indices of the Latvian bank system, i.e. Actives, credits, deposits, increment rates and structural changes are analyzed. By using the SWOT analyses, the strong and weak sides of the Latvian bank system. With the help of regression analyses, the connection between the indices of the Latvian bank system and factorial indications are determined. Based on the analyses, the possible scenarios of Latvian bank system development were simulated; also the problems emerging in the simulation process were examined.
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