[Optimization of functioning parameters of grain sub-complex in risky conditions]

The problem of natural risk management in the grain production branch, which is one of the main ideas in financial and production activity of agricultural producers has been analyzed. Using stochastic modeling methods it was possible to analyze and forecast probability of this or that weather condition, which is the central point in the problem solution. Grain production management on the basis of this modeling provides optimal combination of grain branches in the given area and increases their specialization and on this base to minimize influence of risk spectrum on the grain branch efficiency. Review of studying and summarizing of existing points of view on risk are presented. The complex approach to definition of essence of risk according to which in conditions of uncertainty of an economic situation the risk is considered as an opportunity of alternative in an outcome of events, discrepancies of actual result with planned is offered. Characterizing risk in a grain branch, it is necessary to recognize, that manufacture of grain is subject to influence of extreme situations of natural character. The principal causes causing occurrence of such kind of risk, adverse unfavourable climatic conditions are. Their consequences are shown in fluctuations of productivity of grain crops which lead to a variation of total harvesting of grain and infringement of parities between animal industries and feed production. The risk can be operated, using the various measures allowing in a certain degree to predict approach of brave event and to take measures to decrease in a degree of risk. Considering specific branch features of management by grain husbandry it was concretized system of risks in this branch: risks of extreme situations of natural character; industrial-technological risk; Economic and financial risk; social risk; risk connected with selling of production; risk of missed benefit. The given classification of risks in a grain husbandry enables for the analysis of resource potential of region and forecasting of financial results in view of overcoming uncertainty of development of economic processes