Analysis of Sudan agricultural trade under uncertainty
2007
Ibrahim, H.A., University of Khartoum, Shambat (Sudan). Faculty of Agriculture | Kirschke, D., Humboldt University of Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Agricultural Economics | Abdel-Karim, I., University of Khartoum, Shambat (Sudan). Faculty of Agriculture
Agricultural markets are known to involve several sources of uncertainty which greatly affect the performance of agricultural trade. The main objective of this paper was to analyze the performance of agricultural trade in Sudan under uncertainty prevailing in the market and to examine how this performance is affected by changes in trade policies. A stochastic partial equilibrium model; namely, multi-market model for Sudan, is used to achieve the study objectives. The results indicated that Sudan's gricultural trade involves a high degree of uncertainty that results in considerable fluctuations in the foreign exchange earnings and welfare values. This should be carefully considered in a developing country like Sudan, in which the performance of agriculture contributes greatly to the well being of a large sector of the population. The results also indicated that both world and domestic policies affect Sudan's agricultural trade performance when uncertainty prevails in the market. Thus, the direction towards the liberalization of both world and domestic markets for agriculture does not only enhance agricultural trade, but also improves its performance by reducing its instability. So, when planning for agriculture, the government should be concerned about uncertainty and its causes as well as its implications for all those involved in the agricultural business
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