A study of economic costing of the wheat yield and its future expectations

Wheat is considered the most important Egyptian agricultural and good product imports. The wheat imports represent one third of the agricultural and food imports value during the period of 2000 -2002. Wheat imports cost the Egyptian economy about one billion us Dollar annually during the same period. The Egyptian government great wheat imports preciosity in foreign money budget. The government subsidize the wheat, its flour and local bread by about 2, 75 billion Egyptian pound per annum in average of the period 2000-2002. The future expectations study was based on the arrival of national consumption of wheat at 12, 7 Million tons in the year 2003/ 2004, the local production would cover about 7, 4 million tons, representing 58% of the national consumer need, and the wheat imports amounting at 6,24 Million tons, out of which, 5,3 Million tons is used in completing the local consumption need, and about 0,92 Million tons is used in completing the l ocal consumption need, and about 0.92 Million tons for the wheat strategic storage. With the expectation of wheat import price CIF (cost, insurance and freight) in the year 2003/ 2004 about us dollar 160/ ton so that wheat imports burden the national economy with about us dollar 948 million , which equals LE 5, 8 Billion as per the current mate of exchange (LE 6.13 ). In the event of the increase in dollar mate of exchange to LE 7.15. than the import of the same quantity will cost about LE 6.8 Billion. The state budget is expected to put up with about LE 4.3 Billion for wheat subsidize in the year 2003/ 2004 in case of the US Dollar mate of exchange stability at LE 6.13, and would escalate up to LE 5.3 Billion in case of US Dollar Mate of exchange escalation to LE 7.15. In case of a 10•%o increase in wheat import price (That's at US Dollar 176/ Ton), then the import cost of the same quantity, that's 6.24 Million tons would cost LE 6.7 Billion, and the state would put up with wheat subsidize, that `s LE 5.2 Billion at the current US Dollar Mater of exchange, which is LE 6.13. wheat subsidize would increase to LE 6.3 Billion in case of US Dollar Mate of exchange escalates to LE 7.15.