Provincial food demand projection in China: Toward 2030
2008
Honda, M.(Tokyo Univ. (Japan)) | Shindo, J. | Okamoto, K. | Kawashima, H.
We estimated future food demand in urban and rural China at provincial level, considering the impact of demographic factors such as urbanization and aging. The estimation model consisted of two sections: population and food demand. Under population section, we developed a cohort model to estimate the future population. In food demand section, we estimated future food demand per capita by using income as exogenous variable. When data quality appeared questionable, we made adjustments by employing previous studies. The result showed annual demands of grain food and animal food were expected to change from 194 and 60 [million t] in 2005, to 135 and 99 [million t] in 2030, respectively. Urbanization and income growth in rural areas were found to shift the demand from grain to animal protein in the projected period. In the long run, however, the growth rate of animal food demand will decrease as the per capita demand gap become smaller. The increasing number of aged population will also contribute to this reduction.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Mots clés AGROVOC
Informations bibliographiques
Cette notice bibliographique a été fournie par Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Information Technology Center
Découvrez la collection de ce fournisseur de données dans AGRIS