Обоснование прогнозных сценариев развития мясопродуктового подкомплекса АПК региона
2009
Kholodova, M.A. | Kholodov, O.A., Don State Agrarian Univ., Rostov Region (Russian Federation)
The forecasting methods and models for meat production and processing have been outlined. The regression and simulation models are estimated as the most suitable. The 2000-2007 data on meat sector development in Rostov oblast (region), Russia, evidence steady increase of output (for all categories of farm entities) from 217,500 to 292,800 tonnes (i.e. by 34.6%) and from 33 to 44 kg per capita. That increase was generated by livestock herd expansion, particularly, pigs, sheep and goats. The most part of meat output (60-70%) was provided by household farms. A significant growth of output for meat products such as sausages (572%), prepared meat foods (471%), 1st class meat and by-products (243%) was also observed. Nevertheless, meat imports increased as well, resulted from the insufficient meat supply. The animal farm planning, based on the current norms, is of great importance for the provision of meat-processing plant workload. The business plan developing for the pig industry of "Shumilinskoyer" company has been represented as an example. Based on the FAR-TRADE software programme, three meat sector development scenarios for the years 2012 and 2015 have been elaborated. The base scenario suggests output increase to 190,700 tonnes in 2012 and 226,200 tonnes in 2015, i.e. by 45.7 and 72.8% compared to the base year 2006, respectively. The intensification scenario suggests output increase by 58.3% and 99.8% and the optimistic scenario – 82.74% and 101.9%
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