Use of mathematical models of pesticides concentration prognosis in surface waters | Использование математических моделей прогноза концентраций пестицидов в поверхностных водах
2010
Gorbatov, V.S. | Kononova, A.A., Lomonosov Moscow State Univ. (Russian Federation)
In the countries of European Commuity the scheme of a step-by-step forecasting detailing to estimate pesticide risks for environment is used. The scheme consists of 4 steps, the each of them means more compound mathematical models and more realistic input data for the models n compare with the previous steps. The step 1 (the worst case) implies a momentum pesticide intake into a water reservoir. At the output a pesticide maximum concentration in the system "water - bottom set" is fixed. The step 2 takes into account a possible recommended multiple pesticide application during a vegetative period. The step 3 take into account crop and water reservoir types, topography, soil and climate territory features. At the step 4 more detailed calculations are done, data of a soil and climate zone are precised; it is possible to allow input restrictions for pesticide using. An approbation of this scheme has been hold taking the insecticide Dimetoat as an example in the territory of the Russian Federation. An application rate of Dimetoat was 0.6 kg/ha, a treatment number was 1 and a tested culture was spring wheat. Predictable concentrations were compared with Dimetoat MPC (maximum permissible concentration) in water reservoirs of fisheries (1.4 milli kg/l). It was determined after using the all 4 steps that a harmful level could be exceeded only at the day of application when the insecticide could get into a water reservoir with influx at the moment of treatment. Predictable concentrations were lower than harmful levels when a buffer zone was extended up to 10 m. The approbated scheme was concluded to be useful for the procedure of new pesticides registration.
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