Risk management in agricultural investments
2007
Vasiljević, Z., Faculty of Agriculture, Belgrade - Zemun (Serbia) | Subić, J., Institute of Agricultural Economics, Belgrade (Serbia) | Ćejvanović, F., Brcko District Goverment, Brcko (Bosnia and Herzegovina). Department for Agriculture
Sensitivity analysis by utilization of critical values represents appropriate methodological procedure for determination of risk and uncertainty influence onto the investment economic effectiveness in practice. However, it has to be stressed that by utilization of the critical value method it is not possible to solve completely a problem of investment decision making in the risky and uncertain conditions. Utilization domain of this method is limited on introduction of only one uncertain value in calculation. By introduction of two or more values we should get uncertain results and this methodological procedure becomes unacceptable for application. In favor of the mentioned methodological procedure utilization it could be emphasized the fact that in practice it is frequently one or small number of initial parameters evaluated as uncertain, whose differences from the projected values could be important for investment economic justification (in the analyzed blackberry model those are projected yields, selling output price etc.). In any case, it can be concluded that results obtained by application of elaborated or some other more sophisticated method for the investment risk and uncertainty analysis, could contribute to the more realistic recognition of investment economic effectiveness.
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