Water environmental capacity based on blind number theory in the section of Xindian-Ruhuangkou of Fen River | 基于盲数理论的汾河新店―入黄口段水环境容量及削减量研究

chinois. 确定汾河新店－入黄口段的水环境容量以及污染物削减量。从水环境系统多种不确定性的角度出发，以盲数理论为基础，将水文、水质盲数化，利用盲信息下的河流水环境容量计算模型，对汾河新店-入黄口段主要污染物COD、氨氮的水环境容量进行计算，分析该河段的水环境容量及污染物削减量。汾河新店－入黄口段主要污染物COD和氨氮的水环境容量分别为－62.3和－58.4 t/d，表明该段污染严重，水体已经丧失了使用功能，需要削减污染物排放量，其中COD和氨氮的削减量分别为62.3和58.4 t/d。将该计算结果与确定性方法的计算结果进行对比分析，结果表明，基于盲数理论的不确定性方法能够较为合理、科学地确定超标严重河段的污染物削减量。基于盲数理论的河流水环境容量计算方法，考虑了河流的水文、水质等因素的实际变化，应用于实际是可行的。

anglais. The water environmental capacity and the quantity of pollutions reduction were determined in the section of Xindian－Ruhuangkou of Fen River. This paper set out from the many uncertainties of water environmental system, based on the blind number theory, converted the hydrology and water quality into blind number, then figured out the water environmental capacity of the section of Xindian－Ruhuangkou of Fen River applying the model for calculating water environmental capacity of river under the unascertained information, then analyzed the water environmental capacity and the quantity of pollutions reduction. The water environmental capacity of COD and ammonia nitrogen were －62.3 and －58.4 t/d. The results are negative, indicating that this section pollutes severely, losing its use, and need to be put down. The quantity of COD and ammonia nitrogen reduction were 62.3 and 58.4 t/d. At the same time, comparing the results under the uncertainty and the certainty condition, it indicated that uncertainty method could reasonably and scientifically confirm the quantity of pollutants reduction that the section of the river polluted severely. This method, based on blind number theory, took into account the actual change of the hydrology and water quality. It was feasible to put this method into practice.