Using El Ni.os/Southern Oscillation climate data to improve food policy planning in Indonesia.
2002
Naylor R.L. | Falcon W.P. | Wada N. | Rochberg D.
Despite the strong effect on El Ni.os/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production have not been well developed. This study successfully measures the connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall and rice and maize production in Indonesia during the past three decades. About half of the interannual variance in paddy (gabah) production during the main (wet) season is explained by year-to-year fluctuations in August SSTAs. These effects are cumulative for rice during strong El Ni.o years, production shortfalls in the wet season are not made up later in the year. Econometric results for maize, while less consistent than those for rice, indicate a largely inverse pattern. The study shows that paddy production in Indonesia varies on average by about 1.4 million tons for every 1 degree C change in the August SSTA for the central Pacific Ocean. It also illustrates how policymakers might use an SSTA model to improve food policy planning within Indonesia.
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