The chaotic agricultural production growth model: the Danube countries

anglais. The ten Danube countries are : Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine and Romania. The Danube countries are facing several challenges: environmental threats, insufficient transport and energy connections, uncoordinated economy, education, research. Also, it is important to improve security system in the Danube countries. The basic aims of this paper are: firstly, to set up a chaotic agricultural production growth model , that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos, and secondly, to analyze the local stability of agricultural production growth in the Danube countries in the period 1961-2009 . The estimated model confirms the local stability of agricultural production growth in the Danube countries in the observed period.

serbe. Deset podunavskih zemalja su: Nemačka, Austrija, Slovačka, Madjarska, Hrvatska, Srbija, Bugarska, Moldavija, Ukrajina i Rumunija. Podunavske zemlje se suočavaju sa nekoliko izazova: pretnje problemima životne sredine, nedovoljne saobraćajne i energetske povezanosti, nekoordinisanim privredama, obrazovanjem, naučenim istraživanjem.Takodje, značajno je poboljšati bezbednosni sistem u podunavskim zemljama. Osnovni ciljevi ovog rada su : prvo, postaviti haotični model rasta poljoprivredne proizvodnje, koji je u mogućnosti da generiše stabilnu ravnotežu, cikluse ili haos, i drugo, da analizira lokalnu stabilnost rasta poljoprivredne proizvodnje upodunavskim zemljama u periodu 1961-2009 (www.fao.org). Ocenjeni model potvrdjuje egzistenciju lokalne stabilnosti rasta poljoprivredne proizvodnje u podunavskim zemljama u posmatranom periodu.