World nitrogen survey
Sheldrick, William F.
Nitrogen is an important raw material for the chemical and fertilizer industries. Almost all nitrogen products are derived from ammonia, and about 85 percent goes to fertilizer use. This report examines the world nitrogen industry and its outlook through 1995/96. Although the nitrogen fertilizer industry grew very rapidly during the 1960s, it recently declined owing to a depressed world agricultural situation which resulted in surplus supplies with very low prices. In a period of oversupply and with a depressed agricultural market, nitrogen fertilizer prices are expected to remain low. After 1988/89, however, the surplus balance will diminish, and prices are forecast to rise sharply and peak in the early 1990s. But they will probably decline again toward the mid-1990s after new capacity comes on stream. A detailed examination has been made in this paper of the total costs of producing urea and ammonia and how this is likely to be affected by future energy prices, plant location, and utilization rates. After 1990 it is estimated that at least 10 new nitrogen fertilizer plants will be needed each year through 1995 to meet increasing demand and to replace worn-out plants.
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