Casualty Sustainment During Naval Warfare: Adjustments to World War II-Based Projections.
1997
Marks, Jeffrey S. | Blood, CHristopher G. | Gilman, Patricia A.
Projections for the shipboard casualty projection model, SHIPCAS, were updated by adjusting parameters to reflect advances in weapon systems and ship structural changes. The adjustments were derived from the responses of a subject matter expert (SME) panel which examined the factors associated with potential weapon strikes on contemporary ships and quantified the likely casualty sustainment relative to attacks occurring in the past. Modern ship structural improvements were thought to contribute to fewer casualties in the event of a weapon strike. The structural improvements combined with less modern crew density further influenced the panel in the direction of casualty sustainment decreases overall. The panel generally estimated likely casualty sustainment on smaller ships to be greater than that on larger ships as the smaller ships have less size and material to absorb shock, and there is a heightened chance of a catastrophic loss of the smaller vessels. Accurate forecasts of the casualty incidence likely to be sustained during naval combat operations allow sufficient medical resources to be programmed to treat the expected casualty flows. A shipboard casualty projection system, SHIPCAS, has been developed to assist planners in determining likely casualty incidence. SHIPCAS projections are based upon empirical data from eighty naval operations and over 800 ship strikes which occurred during World War II. While it is important that casualty projections be firmly grounded in operational reality, it is recognized that ship structures and weaponry have both changed since World War II naval combat and that these changes may impact casualty sustainment.
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