FORECASTING the number of dairy cows WITH AN econometric model | ПРОГНОЗИРАНЕ НА БРОЯ НА МЛЕЧНИТЕ КРАВИ С ПОМОЩТА НА ИКОНОМЕТРИЧЕН МОДЕЛ
2013
Kharizanova-Metodieva, Ts., Institute of Animal Science, Kostinbrod (Bulgaria)
It was built polynomial distributive lag model with confidence level of 95% using the method of ordinary least squares. The aim of this study is to forecast the number of dairy cows in Bulgaria with the help of this model. Source of information on which the econometric model is constructed are data from MAF of Bulgaria for the period 01.11.2002 - 01.11.2012. Independent variables included in the model are:Number of dairy farms in Bulgaria and a constant. Some diagnostic tests are conducted: Lagrange Multiplier Test, DW- statistics, Correlogram of Residuals, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Test of Residuals OLS Case, Whites Heteroskedasticity Test, CUSUM, CUSUMSQ, Ramsey Reset test. The tests are computed with the software Eviews 3.1. With the help of the regression model with a confidence level of 95%, it is predicted that the number of dairy cows towards 01.11.2013 will be 281 356 heads in Bulgaria with the upper limit of variation of 302 984 heads and lower limit оf 261 272 heads.
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