Assessing the suitability of the EPIC crop model for use in the study of impacts of climate variability and climate change in West Africa
2004
J.O. Adejuwon
Scientists of the US Department of Agriculture have developed what is known as the EPIC Crop Model. This model has been successfully applied in the study of erosion, water pollution, and crop growth and production. However, it is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries and other regions.This paper discusses the applicability of EPIC crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in Sub-Saharan West Africa.The paper reports that among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with the EPIC crop model are five of west Africa’s staple food crops, including, maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice, and cassava. Using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 percent confidence limits. Validation tests based on a comparison of observed and model generated yields of rice and maize were conducted. In the case of maize, model simulated yields varied between 97 and 110 percent of observed yields.However, the author argues that there are difficulties in appropriately representing the EPIC crop model in microenvironments under which crops are produced in real life. There is always some gap between observed and simulated yields resulting from data and/or model deficiencies. Attempts at closing the gaps between observations and predictions, the author notes, should be directed mainly at such deficiencies.
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