Thinking about the future of food: the Chatham House food supply scenarios

Demand for food is increasing because the global population is rising and major developing economies are expanding. Global supply capacity, meanwhile, is struggling to keep up with changing requirements. This brief explores four global food supply scenarios which have been developed by the Chatham House Food Supply Project. <br /><br />Based on publicly available information and statistics, the scenarios illustrate a range of circumstances that food supply actors in both developed and developing countries must expect to face in the years to come. These scenarios are outlined as: &lsquo;Just a Blip&rsquo;: what if the present high price of food proves to be a brief spike with a return to cheap food at some point soon? &lsquo;Food Inflation&rsquo;: what if food prices remain high for a decade or more? &lsquo;Into a New Era&rsquo;: what if today&rsquo;s food system has reached its limits and must change? &lsquo;Food in Crisis&rsquo;: what if a major world food crisis develops? It is&nbsp;stressed that these are not predictions of the future. The global scenarios do however reveal significant points of debate and questions for all stakeholders across the EU/UK food supply system. The authors argue that the expected impacts of the circumstances presented provide a stark warning that &lsquo;business as usual&rsquo; models could at worst fail, and at best be poor preparation for the coming period. However, it is also argued, on a more positive note, that the challenging transformation in prospect offers exciting opportunities for the UK to develop new competitive strengths. <br /><br />It is noted that any temptation to focus on the UK agricultural sector in isolation must be resisted; part of the solution lies in developing the capability of the food supply system as a whole. This will require a set of related initiatives including ones built round new frameworks for technological innovation, waste reduction, partnership-led approaches and acceptance of possible changes in consumption patterns. The authors argue that long-term planning needs to start now. A first step might be the establishment of a consortium that would juxtapose the expertise and evidence of government, supply network interests, and a range of societal groups (media, NGOs, universities). The partnership would need to undertake a proactive review of current arrangements, developing and delivering a fresh, concept-based demand-and-supply strategy for food. <br />