Bamboo Shoot Growth Model Based on the Stochastic Process and Its Application | 基于随机过程的毛竹笋期生长模型构建及应用

chinois. 毛竹笋期生长与毛竹生长快、产量高、固碳功能强有非常密切的关系，研究毛竹笋期生长模型意义重大。本研究指出毛竹笋期生长受很多随机因素的干扰，其实质上是随机过程，并应用随机过程理论与Sloboda生长方程构建了毛竹笋期生长的随机过程模型，及对该模型的特征函数进行研究。用本文构建的模型结合实测数据资料表明：1）毛竹笋期生长在大约55天完成，其生长过程可以分为2个阶段：1―25天为第1阶段，该阶段毛竹生长比较缓慢，25―55天为第2阶段，该阶段毛竹处于爆发式生长；2）对于给定的生长时间（本文指天数），毛竹的累积生长量是随机变量，其概率分布曲线由左偏峰逐步转化为正态分布，且其分布的峰值起初显著下降，后逐步变为平稳；3）毛竹笋期生长的第1阶段（1～25天），其生物量的累积量不大，但在生长的第2阶段（25―55天），因竹高处在爆发式增长阶段且地径不变，其生物量的累积速度非常快，体现了毛竹超强的固碳功能；4）对于不同的毛竹，Sloboda生长方程参数k，b的值相同，而SI的值服从正态分布。本研究给出的毛竹笋期生长随机过程特征函数（均值函数、相关函数与标准差函数），为进一步研究毛竹其他性质奠定基础。

anglais. The shooting period of Moso bamboo （Phyllostachys edulis） is closely related to the feature of fast growth, high yield and strong carbon fixation, thus it is of vital significance to study the growth model of Moso bamboo shoot during the shooting period. This research for the first time pointed out that the growth of bamboo shoots could be interfered by many stochastic factors, that is, the growth is a stochastic process in essence. The stochastic process model was built based on stochastic process theory and Sloboda growth equation, and its characteristic functions were studied. Combined with the measured data, the model built in this paper shows that： 1 ） The bamboo shooting period finishes in about 55 days, which can be divided into two phases. Moso bamboo shoots grow slowly in the first stage （1＇t -25＇h day） , and then ~row rapidly in the second stage （25＂ -55th day）. 2） For the given growth time （days）, the cumulative growth of Moso bamboo shoots is a random variable, and the probability distribution curve gradually transforms from left skew peak into normal distribution. The peak value of distribution initially drops rapidly and then becomes smooth gradually. 3 ） The parameters （k, b） of Sloboda growth equation are the same for different bamboo shoots, but the values of SI follow a normal distribution. The stochastic process characteristic functions （mean function, correlation function, and standard teviation function） of the growth during the bamboo shooting period lay the foundation for further research on other characteristics of Moso bamboo.