Selection and adjustment of cropping system under risk= An empirical analysis based on vegetable cropping households in Beijing | 风险条件下农户种植制度选择与调整――以北京市蔬菜种植户为例

chinois. 为深入研究风险条件下的农户种植制度的选择与调整行为,揭示农户多元化种植制度调整的合理性,从而为指导农户进行种植制度的选择与调整提供依据。利用对北京市蔬菜种植户抽样调查所获得的截面数据,采用MOTAD模型实证分析了蔬菜种植户的生产经营状况及其在风险条件下种植制度选择行为。结果表明：北京市蔬菜种植户在生产中主要面临价格风险,而且在风险条件下,农户会对其蔬菜种植结构进行调整。本研究结合效用最大化条件,测算出了适合于当地农户的蔬菜种植制度,即农户在效用最大化的条件下可以利用0.41 hm2的土地进行多元化的蔬菜种植,并达到预期收益。根据实地调研显示,北京市蔬菜种植户户均耕地面积达0.74 hm2,研究结果能够为当地的生产经营提供借鉴。

anglais. This article studies farmers＇ choice and adjustment behavior of cropping systems under the conditions of risk in depth,reveals the rationality of farmers＇ adjustment about diversified cropping systems,and thus provides a basis to guide farmers＇ selection and adjustment on the cropping system.Based on the cross-section data obtained from sampling survey of Beijing＇s vegetable farmers,this article adopts MOTAD model to analyze the production and operating status of the farmers and their cropping system choice under risk.The results indicated that Beijing vegetable farmers faced price risk mostly,and they might adjust their vegetable planting structure when they were in risk.Combined with utility maximization condition,the author calculated a reasonable vegetable cropping system suited to the local farmers,and that farmers could take diversity cultivation with 0.41 hm2 of land and then receive prospective return.According to the field research,every Beijing vegetable planting household had 0.74 hm2 of land area in average,so the results of this study could provide a reference for the local production and operation.The local government should make some rational plans.The degree of organization,production and management capacity,sale ability,and technical application capabilities of farmers need improve gradually.