Simulating climate-induced impacts on Philippine agriculture using computable general equilibrium analysis
2014
Vista, A.B.
This research employed a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the likely extent of climate-induced impacts on the Philippine economy and its agricultural subsectors. Using two simulation scenarios (i.e. decline in agricultural productivity, and combination of a decline in agricultural productivity and fishery policy response), the results reveal that the real gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost, export quantity, import quality and employment will decrease. However, if the government will employ fishery policy response that would target an increasing production in the fishery subsectors (i.e. ocean fishing, freshwater/coastal fishing, and aquaculture), then the reduction in percent deviation from the base for real GDP, export and import quantity, and employment will be lower. Overall, climate-induced impacts will result in a net loss to the Philippine economy and its key agricultural sectors in the short run. Therefore, it is imperative for Philippine farmers to adopt adaptation measures that will lessen the impacts of climate change such as use of organic, indigenous and/or diversified farming practices coupled with safety nets provided by the national and local government units for the affected farmers in the agricultural subsectors-banana, corn, sugar, rice and fiber products.
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