Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000

Ranaweera, Thilak

Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000

2003

Ranaweera, Thilak

The author develops, and applies a macroeconomic framework to ascertain the influence of domestic disequilibria, and external shocks on inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. Using quarterly data for the period 1994:01 to 2000:03, he estimates several "long-run" relationships for the goods, money, and foreign exchange markets of Uzbekistan, which are characterized by multiple exchange rates, import restrictions, and other domestic administrative controls. The empirical estimates, which use error correction mechanisms for different markets, show that domestic monetary, and output developments, and changes in the official exchange rate, compared with the parallel market rate, have had a significant influence on the short-run behavior of the foreign exchange market in Uzbekistan. Furthermore, disequilibria in the product, and money markets are the major forces driving short-run inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. It should be noted that the study has been constrained by both the quantity, and the quality of quarterly data available for the Uzbekistan economy.

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Mots clés AGROVOC

agriculture balance of payments business cycles comparative analysis debt developed countries development economics domestic markets economic growth economic statistics elasticity employment equations equilibrium exchange rate exports external debt fiscal policies gnp growth rate imports industrialization inflation interest rates international monetary fund macroeconomic analysis macroeconomics pegs product markets production functions public investment public sector statistical analysis terms of trade valuation

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Editeur

World Bank, Washington, DC

D'autres materias

Disinflation; Market disruption; Goods; Aggregate demand; Wage controls market disruption; Foreign exchange rate; Trade balance; Inflation stabilization; Tax revenues; Deutsche mark; Foreign exchange market; Currency substitution; Economic dynamics; Spread; Gold prices; Trade regime; Parallel exchange rates; Consumer price index; Currency; Exchange rates; Price liberalization; Expenditures; Cpi; Money markets; External shocks; Inflation rate; Money balances; Substitution effect; Inflationary pressures; Transition economies; Foreign exchange markets; Local currency; Foreign exchange rates; Phillips curve; Empirical studies; Multiple exchange rates; Time series; Macroeconomic policies; Restrictive business practices; Relative price; Real gdp; Budget deficit; Nominal exchange rate; Budget deficits; Money market accounts; Foreign exchange reserves; Foreign exchange; Wage controls; Nominal interest rates; Output; Domestic price level; Price increases; Government spending; Disequilibrium (economics); Currency units; Market conditions; Error correction models; Money supply; Domestic prices; Foreign borrowing; Stabilization programs; Demand for money; Outputs; Real exchange rate; Seasonal factors; Domestic price; Money market; Real interest rates; Substitutes; Monetary indexes; Macroeconomic performance; Money demand

Licence

Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3144http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/CC BY 3.0 IGO

Source

Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3144

Sur AGRIS depuis: 2014-09-15

Format: AGRIS AP

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18035

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Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000

2003

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