Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use

Guindon, G. Emmanuel; Boisclair, David

Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use

2003

Guindon, G. Emmanuel | Boisclair, David

This paper first estimates the number of tobacco users in 2000 and cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2000 by regions and levels of development and briefly discusses the advantages and disadvantages of estimating tobacco use on the basis of prevalence surveys or aggregate data. Secondly, prevalence (and its associated number of smokers) and cigarette consumption (total and per capita) are projected in the future using several scenarios of changes in tobacco use (prevalence and cigarette consumption), as well as different assumptions about population and income growth. The results show that even if all countries immediately implement a comprehensive set of tobacco control policies, the reduction in the number of tobacco users and the total consumption of cigarettes will be gradual. This should give comfort to farmers and others who fear the impact of tobacco control on their livelihoods. It is however, discouraging news for public health, since it implies that the number of tobacco attributable deaths will continue to rise for decades to come.

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Mots clés AGROVOC

agriculture cancer cigarettes data quality developed countries developing countries economic development economic impact elasticity employment epidemiology exports growth rate health health services imports income international trade market economies mortality nicotine nutrition population growth smoking taxation tobacco tobacco industry

Informations bibliographiques

Editeur

World Bank, Washington, DC

D'autres materias

Tobacco law; Consumption patterns; Tobacco companies; Tobacco trade policies; Policy making; Average rate; Per capita consumption; Tobacco epidemic; Epidemiological studies; Human development; Developing world; Poor data; Average annual; Tobacco smoking; Developed world; Tax revenues; Tobacco taxes; Income elasticity; Tobacco control; Tobacco advertising; Gdp; Mean income; Health problems; Country level; Price increases; Tobacco consumption; Annual growth; Income levels; Annual rate; Per capita income; Population data; Price of tobacco products; Policy makers; Cardiovascular disease; Annual growth rate; Gdp per capita; Income increase; Low incomes; Income effect; Average income; Real gdp; Premature death; Young people economics of tobacco control; Tobacco use

Licence

HNP discussion paper;http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/World BankCC BY 3.0 Unported

Source

HNP discussion paper;

Sur AGRIS depuis: 2014-09-15

Format: AGRIS AP

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Cette notice bibliographique a été fournie par World Bank

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Liens

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13726

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Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use

2003

Mots clés AGROVOC

Informations bibliographiques