Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use

Guindon, G. Emmanuel; Boisclair, David

Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use

2003

Guindon, G. Emmanuel | Boisclair, David

This paper first estimates the number of tobacco users in 2000 and cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2000 by regions and levels of development and briefly discusses the advantages and disadvantages of estimating tobacco use on the basis of prevalence surveys or aggregate data. Secondly, prevalence (and its associated number of smokers) and cigarette consumption (total and per capita) are projected in the future using several scenarios of changes in tobacco use (prevalence and cigarette consumption), as well as different assumptions about population and income growth. The results show that even if all countries immediately implement a comprehensive set of tobacco control policies, the reduction in the number of tobacco users and the total consumption of cigarettes will be gradual. This should give comfort to farmers and others who fear the impact of tobacco control on their livelihoods. It is however, discouraging news for public health, since it implies that the number of tobacco attributable deaths will continue to rise for decades to come.

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Mots clés AGROVOC

agriculture cancer cigarettes data quality developed countries developing countries economic development economic impact elasticity employment epidemiology exports growth rate health health services imports income international trade market economies mortality nicotine nutrition population growth smoking taxation tobacco tobacco industry

Informations bibliographiques

Editeur

World Bank, Washington, DC

D'autres materias

Per capita income; Mean income; Income levels; Epidemiological studies; Annual growth; Health problems; Tobacco companies; Cardiovascular disease; Tobacco trade policies; Real gdp; Policy makers; Tobacco smoking; Average rate; Consumption patterns; Average annual; Tobacco taxes; Tobacco use; Annual growth rate; Low incomes; Premature death; Annual rate; Tobacco epidemic; Gdp per capita; Population data; Poor data; Tobacco law; Tobacco control; Human development; Tax revenues; Income effect; Income increase; Tobacco advertising; Tobacco consumption; Income elasticity; Price of tobacco products; Gdp; Young people economics of tobacco control; Country level; Per capita consumption; Developing world; Price increases; Average income; Policy making; Developed world

Licence

HNP discussion paper;http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/World BankCC BY 3.0 Unported

Source

HNP discussion paper;

Sur AGRIS depuis: 2014-09-15

Format: AGRIS AP

Fournisseur de données

Cette notice bibliographique a été fournie par World Bank

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Liens

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13726

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Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use

2003

Mots clés AGROVOC

Informations bibliographiques