A Study for Continue and Decline of Abies koreana Forest using Species Distribution Model Focused in Mt. Baekwun Gwangyangsi, Jeollanamdo

The present study investigated the habitats of Korean fir trees (Abies koreana E. H. Wilson) on Mt. Baekwun (Baekwun-san), determined the current distribution, quantified the contribution of biological and nonbiological environmental factors affecting the distribution, derived actual and potential habitats, presented a plan for the establishment of protected areas, applied RCP 8.5 climate change scenario to analyze the effects of climate change on the future distribution of Korean fir trees, and predicted future potential habitats. According to the results of the study, 3,325 Korean fir trees (DBH = 2.5 cm) inhabited Mt. Baekwun, and their distribution area was approximately 150 ha. Populations of Korean fir trees were confirmed to exist at an altitude of 900 m above sea level and were distributed up to 1,200 m. Based on potential distribution, areas appropriate for habitation by Korean fir trees were analyzed to be 450 ha, three times the current distribution area, with a focus on Sang Peak (Sang-bong), Eokbul Peak (Eokbul-bong), Ddari Peak (Ddari-bong), and Dosol Peak (Dosol-bong). The forest stands near Sang Peak, the main peak, were evaluated as those with the most appropriate potential for the habitation of Korean fir trees, and populations of the trees tended to prefer the northern slope rather than the southern slope. When climate change scenario RCP 8.5 was applied and future potential distribution was analyzed, the habitats were expected to decrease in area to 20 ha by 2050, with a focus on Sang Peak, and areas appropriate for habitation were predicted not to exist by 2080. Judging from such results, as global warming accelerates, the habitats of Korean fir trees are clearly expected to move from lowlands to highlands.