Historical and future trends of summer mean air temperature over South Asia
2016
Iqbal, W. (Pakistan Meteorological Dept., Islamabad (Pakistan)) | Zahid, M. (Pakistan Meteorological Dept., Islamabad (Pakistan))
Mean air temperature is an important meteorological parameter. The signal of climate change is often describe by the changes in the mean temperature. Keeping in view the importance of the mean air temperature, in this study we used twenty four CMIP5 GCMs to analyze the future changes in summer (June July August September) mean air temperature. The historical run of the GCMs were first compared with the ERA Interim mean temperature for the period 1979-2005. The spatial analysis shows the warm biases of the GCMs over the-plain areas and cold biases over the mountainous regions. Taylor diagram analysis shows that most of the GCMs are in good accordance with the ERA Interim mean air temperature for the summer season. The future projections of the selected GCMs were then presented in mulitmodel ensemble for each decade from 2011-2100. The change has in increasing trend all over the study area. The significant change has been projected for the northern and north western parts of Pakistan and south eastern India region. The change in mean temperature is below 4 degree C under RCP 4.5 whereas it is above 5 degree C under RCP 8.5. Multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs projections for the future under both the RCPs, show higher spread over the northern and central parts of Pakistan; and central India. Projected change is robust and it is anticipated that this increase will enhance the erratic behavior of the monsoon in future.
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