Achieving the MDGs in Yemen : An Assessment

Al-Batuly, Abdulmajeed; Al-Hawri, Mohamed; Cicowiez, Martin; Lofgren, Hans; Pournik, Mohammad

Achieving the MDGs in Yemen : An Assessment

2014

Al-Batuly, Abdulmajeed | Al-Hawri, Mohamed | Cicowiez, Martin | Lofgren, Hans | Pournik, Mohammad

Once the current political crisis in Yemen has been resolved, it will be ever more urgent to speed up progress, including Millennium Development Goal (MDG) achievements. Drawing on simulations with the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a model for strategy analysis, and a linked microsimulation model, this paper addresses Yemen's MDG challenges. A first simulation set considers scaled-up government actions with the aim of fully achieving the 2015 international MDG targets with required additional financing from foreign or domestic sources. The main finding is sobering but not surprising: given the required expansion of MDG -- related services, on-time achievement of key MDG targets does not appear to have been a realistic objective even if the government, hypothetically, would have expanded services with grant aid financing starting from 2005; macroeconomic stability, government efficiency, and the production of tradables would all have suffered due to the size of spending and aid increases as well as the resulting real exchange rate appreciation. The results suggest that countries, instead of relying on international targets, should set MDG targets grounded in their own reality. In light of these results, the authors designed a second simulation set that is focused on the remaining period up to 2015, and on what may be feasible once the current conflict has been settled. The simulations introduce moderate increases in foreign aid or government allocative efficiency. The government uses the resulting fiscal space for spending and service expansion in infrastructure and human development without losses in productive efficiency. The results suggest that, under these conditions, substantial improvements could still be achieved.

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Mots clés AGROVOC

accounting agricultural production agriculture balance of payments basic education bulletin capital formation debt development economics development strategy drinking water economic development economic growth economic situation economic systems economic trends elasticity equipment expenditure exports external debt food prices food production foreign investment foreign trade groundwater growth rate health care health services household income infant interest rates international bank international cooperation market structure millennium development goals monetary policies natural resources population growth primary education private investment public debt public health public services rural areas sanitation savings secondary education social development social policies social structure stocks taxation trade liberalization unemployment urban areas wages water resources

Informations bibliographiques

Editeur

World Bank, Washington, DC

D'autres materias

Investment climate; Inflow of remittances; High population growth; Financial crisis; Gender gap; Rising consumption; International community; Domestic resource mobilization; Trust fund; Basic sanitation; International standards; Debts; Public spending; Policy research; Skilled workers; Trade balance; Foreign debt; Resource use; Rates of inflation; Gdp; Oil prices; Progress; Development assistance; Adverse effects; Number of workers; Millennium development goal; Base year; Income levels; Level of education; Foreign currency; Infant mortality rates; Labor market; Macroeconomic policy; Benchmark; Macroeconomic stability; Tertiary education; Official development assistance; Treasury; Basic social services; Total factor productivity; Debt stock; Household incomes; Foreign interest; Lenders; Political turmoil; Primary school; Infant mortality; Gini coefficient; Population growth rate; Reproductive age; Opportunity cost; Labor force; Neonatal mortality; Educational attainment; Inflation rate; Supply curves; Investment spending; Central bank; Reserves; Gender disparities; Point of departure; Health sector; Return; Income level; Health education; Economic performance; Partial equilibrium analysis; Development policy; Government debt; Skill level; Export growth; Safe drinking water; Competitiveness; Real gdp; Per capita incomes; Health care services; Government finance; Derivatives; Unemployment rate; Budget deficits; Foreign financing; Social sectors; Press release; Foreign exchange reserves; Rapid expansion; Development strategies; Foreign exchange; Private capital; Use of resources; Domestic debt; Market constraints; Human development; Foreign loans; Tax collection; Capital accounts; Policy discussions; Output; Tax rates; Institutional capacity; Government budget; Government expenditures; Population growth rates; Government financing; Interest payments; Respect; Monetary policy; Tariff barriers; Capital stocks; Developing country; Macroeconomic management; Government policy; Government actions; Government spending; Maternal mortality; Public awareness; Trade deficit; Fiscal policy; Security situation; Policy research working paper; Live births; Employment opportunities; Natural resource; Gender gap in primary; Rapid growth; Service provision; Purchasing power; Primary schooling; Market conditions; Private capital stock; Safe water; Demographic factors; Disposable income; Allocation of resources; Service delivery; Government investment; Civil war; Unemployment rates; Maternal mortality rate; Debt reduction; Nurses; Outputs; Government expenditure; Oil reserves; Government accounts; Fixed investment; Real exchange rate; Low-income countries; Adult literacy; Foreign direct investment; Domestic borrowing; School enrolment; Per capita income; Monetary fund; Bank policy; Tax; Exchange rate regime; Mortality rate

Langue

anglais

Type

Working Paper; Text

Sur AGRIS depuis: 2016-03-15

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Achieving the MDGs in Yemen : An Assessment

2014

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